March 25:

Just added the data.

“But Dr Frank. How do you know the curve is going to bend over?”

I know a fork when I see it, even when it is partially covered by a napkin.

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March 24:

Now, if I use my new smoothing algorithm and do a new fit, wow. Some awful pretty stats! Makes sense. The biggest numbers, already past halfway up the peak, new testing protocols are mostly re-stabilized. Some small adjustments. I decreased the final cases tally from 180,000 to 160,000. Also changed the death DOWN to a rate of 0.9%. (Hooray!)

Peak date of this model is 3/27. I like the sound of that.

Several of you told me today that president Trump is claiming that this whole thing is going to be over in early April.

I wonder if he is looking at my graphs?

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