April 1:

Home turf. Numbers remain small, but worrysome.

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March 31:

Something happened here! (Now we know. They reported the deaths in lumps, but then went back and redistributed them by days. All back to normal.)

Note that the cases has peaked, and that the number of deaths/day is back on track. There is still a spike in deaths, but returned to normal.

Plotted updated graph. Now making sense.

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March 30:

Just added data.

A big jump in deaths today (relative… only 10), but it looks like Ohio is on the peak.

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March 29:

Just added data.

Looks like my intial projections undershot a tad, but I’ll leave well enough alone.

Looks like a peak to me.

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March 28:

Just added data.

Death numbers are low, so don’t want to tweak the model. Cases the same, two days in a row.

On the peak?

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March 27:

Phew! Looks like I’m tracking the right thing in my own state… I’ll do the others as well… internal audit happening here…

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Just added data. Deaths matched perfectly. Looks like still noise in testing. Tracking!

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March 26:

Updated data. Had to increase death rate a tad.

The rest is spot on.

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March 25:

Updated data. Had to increase death rate a tad. 

The rest is spot on.

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March 24:

Just added data. The model is spooky accurate.

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