April 1:
My son, Daniel Frank is sitting pretty…
March 31:
March 30:
Just added data.
Note how the shapes of the curve track, though the amplitudes are a bit. This simply means that our initial estimate of testing ratio is a bit off (death rate off a bit).
March 29:
Just added data.
Looks like “deaths” is behind. Not wishing for it, but expecting some bad news in the next couple of days.
If and when it arrives, you know that it is just reality catching up.
March 27:
Just added data.
So nice to see those numbers flattening out… right on schedule.
This model is gonna be adjusted down.
But not today.
March 25:
Tracking like a kitten chasing a laser pointer.
Just added data.
March 24:
All I did was adjust the total cases down by 500 (from 3500) and added the data. Ho hum, ANOTHER state with fewer projected cases. Nice!
Oh… and since there are ZERO deaths there, the death rate remains an initial assumption.
