April 1:

Numbers are small, but ominous. Praying

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March 31:

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March 30:

Just added data.
Check the scale… these are really low numbers, so the data are noisy.

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March 29:

Just added data.

With numbers this small, I’d say we were tracking well within the noise. There are ways to calculate this… but that discussion is for another time.

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March 28:

Just added data.

Numbers very low, so noisy.

Cleary, these people don’t know how to party

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March 27:

Added new data.

I increased the death rate to 1% from 1/2% because their number of deaths increased from 2 to 4. With numbers this small, not a big deal.

Keep it up Minnesota!

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March 26:

Just added data. I’m afraid to celebrate, I might jinx them. they may be first over the hump.

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March 25:

Looks like a testing anomaly threw us off at the start, precisely when it matters most to the forecast. First graph, just the new data. 2nd graph revised.

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