April 1:
March 31:
Looks like something bad has happened here.
If you know, post in the comments. I would guess a rest home.
March 30:
Just added data.
Looks like someone else just peaked.
That 4.5% death rate is looking high.
March 29:
Just added data.
March 28:
Just added data, but tweaked death rate up. The model was tracking cases well, but deaths numbers were small.
57 of the deaths and 1100 of the cases are from New Orleans.
When was Mardis Gras?
(Feb 25th. Pretty far back. So 14 days from then would be when we would expect to see a big uptick in deaths if they were infected then. Not seeing it in the data. But perhaps when the revelers return home, we would see upticks two weeks after their return?)
March 27:
Just added data, which are tracking well… except the death rate.
So I want to increase the death rate. But let’s hold off and do a controlled “thought experiment.”
Someone look into this. Is there a rest home that got hit? Or some other peculiar circumstance? If so, then the data told us this. Perfect.
—
Michael Brauer‘s confirms our suspicion. This increases our confidence in the model. Yeah, science!
March 26:
Just added data.
March 25:
Covid-19 “Quick Look at Louisiana”
Just added data. Tracking. Awesome.
March 24:
Just added data. Tracking. Awesome.
