April 1:

Tracking! 😊

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March 31:

Kentucky running under my initial forcast. Keep it up.

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March 30:

Just added data.

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March 29:

Just added data.
Looks like this one is running hot. GLAD to be wrong. We’ll tune it down later. For now, we can still track.

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March 28:

Just added data. New format.
Looks like I overshot on this one. Good! For now, let’s leave ‘er be.

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March 27:

Just added data. Tracking.

OVERestimating deaths now, so either we have some coming, or I’m adjusting the death rate down. For now, leave it alone.

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March 26:

Just added data.

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March 25:

Just added data. Model is tracking.

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March 24:

Kentucky just announced that it had double-counted some cases, and revised their numbers down a tad. Rather than updating the earlier graph, I will leave it in place. However, I took the opportunity to apply my new algorithm to the Kentucky data, and to refine a new prediction. Thank you, Kentucky. It was awful nice of you to adjust your numbers to fit my prediction. 

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