April 1:
March 31:
March 30:
Just added data.
March 29:
Just added data.
March 28:
Updated parameters. Not a firm forecast. Still early.
If you don’t put good info in, you won’t get good info out.
March 26:
This is one of the widest curves in the country. One of the earliest infections.
March 25:
The vast majority of numbers for Illinois are for Chicago. All I did was update the data from the previous forcast on 3/21. It is tracking well, and the same thing is happening here as in so many other recent cases; the super-high sudden increases in testing numbers inflated several of the models and misled us a bit.
My first reaction is that this peak is NOT sharp, implying a slow moving infection, from the start.
I’m now plan to apply the new smoothing model, and update the forecast.
addendum: I am not liking the way this is working. I want more data before spending more time on this one. So the second graph is raw. Just want to document progress. Definitely a wider peak, with lots more cases.
Remember, until we reach halfway up the peak, the forecast is far less reliable.
