April 1:

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March 31:

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March 30:

Just added data.

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March 29:

Just added data.

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March 28:

Updated parameters. Not a firm forecast. Still early.

If you don’t put good info in, you won’t get good info out.

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March 26:

This is one of the widest curves in the country. One of the earliest infections.

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March 25:

The vast majority of numbers for Illinois are for Chicago. All I did was update the data from the previous forcast on 3/21. It is tracking well, and the same thing is happening here as in so many other recent cases; the super-high sudden increases in testing numbers inflated several of the models and misled us a bit.

My first reaction is that this peak is NOT sharp, implying a slow moving infection, from the start.

I’m now plan to apply the new smoothing model, and update the forecast.

addendum: I am not liking the way this is working. I want more data before spending more time on this one. So the second graph is raw. Just want to document progress. Definitely a wider peak, with lots more cases.

Remember, until we reach halfway up the peak, the forecast is far less reliable.

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