April 1:

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March 31:

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March 30:

Updated data…

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March 29:

Just added data.

That sudden jump in deaths a few days ago doesn’t look near as scary now…. maybe back on track?

Similar thing happened in California; the data got revised a few days after first release, and the new data had smoothed out the jumps. We should use a longer “time constant” in our thinking, but it is hard these days… feels like a hair-trigger sometimes.

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March 28:

Just added data. This does not look good.

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March 27:

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March 25:

Just added the data. Big spike in cases, no change in deaths trend. Probably a testing artifact.

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March 24:

Oooh, baby. Lower cases. We’re saving lives here, folks!

(Not really. The math only describes reality, not controls it. But, oh do I love turning the model down.)

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