April 1:
March 31:
March 30:
Updated data…
March 29:
Just added data.
That sudden jump in deaths a few days ago doesn’t look near as scary now…. maybe back on track?
Similar thing happened in California; the data got revised a few days after first release, and the new data had smoothed out the jumps. We should use a longer “time constant” in our thinking, but it is hard these days… feels like a hair-trigger sometimes.
March 28:
Just added data. This does not look good.
March 27:
March 25:
Just added the data. Big spike in cases, no change in deaths trend. Probably a testing artifact.
March 24:
Oooh, baby. Lower cases. We’re saving lives here, folks!
(Not really. The math only describes reality, not controls it. But, oh do I love turning the model down.)
