April 1:
At this minute, there are 188,600 reported cases in the US, and 4,055 deaths. My Big USA Model has been projecting a total of about 360,000 total cases, so it’s not surprising that the model thinks that today is the peak.
The “raw” death rate is 4,055/188,600 = 0.0215 = 2.15%
My starting assumption in this process was that the actual death rate was about 1%. If it is, then it means we are only detecting half the cases. Maybe that is good enough. You don’t have to hold an election to estimate the outcome pretty closely. You can do a sample poll.
On the other hand, if you happen to miss a person who is a carrier, it can start a whole epidemic.
Testing has different purposes. Tracking, detection, containment, monitoring, diagnosing…. different purposes at different points in the process.
March 30:
Up to the minute (last point is live)
Provided for completeness. Revised for 3/29.
As I have said on multiple occasions, this graph makes it obvious that we can think of the US as a combination of NY and US49. The “Deaths reconciliation” graph confirms this. We don’t expect the earlier proposed model (shown here) to be lining up now. Continuing to show this graph clearly reveals which of our original assumptions was incorrect. This graph is useful for that purpose. It shows the scientific method at work.
March 29:
Hmm… Big USA Model obviously has the right shape, but is running way hot. (18%, see second graph)
Which are running so hot? Hmm. gonna go back and look for a mistake first, then review the states.
March 27:
I have a spreadsheet that tracks my progress in the state updates, and alerts me to those I have not updated within 24 hrs. With my N Dakota update, according to my sheet all fifty states have been updated within the last 24 hrs. Phew!
Here is the Big US Model as it currently combines all those models:
I’m rooting for it to be close. We’ll know in about 5 hours.
March 26:
And this is adding fifty state models together to produce a prediction for the total number of cases reported today. Not bad!
I’ve been leaving as many of the models alone, even if they are off a bit. And I’ve been wanting to adjust them DOWN.
Things are on target for our peak…
March 25:
Not all the states are updated, but the trend looks great, America!
Every state listed has been updated within the last 24 hours at least once.
March 24:
